Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f65…0522 crypto 38 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-18%) realized −$35 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$24
weather 22% −$42
sports 20% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -17.8% -25.7% 38% 29% -27.3%
≤30d 34 -17.8% -25.7% 38% 29% -27.3%
≤90d 34 -17.8% -25.7% 38% 29% -27.3%
all 34 -17.8% -25.7% 38% 29% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 29% -27.3%
10% -32.8% 24% -34.3%
15% -39.3% 18% -40.6%
20% -45.2% 3% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$15 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $45 +$10 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.71 · official $6.71 (match) · 87 history records