Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f60…39c4 crypto 1634 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-2%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%860W / 665L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day71.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$102
14 days+$611
30 days+$916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$974
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +10.0% -0.4% 54% 54% -4.1%
≤30d 1107 +10.1% -0.4% 56% 56% -0.5%
≤90d 1525 +7.7% -2.6% 56% 56% -2.2%
all 1525 +7.7% -2.6% 56% 56% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 56% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 56% -11.5%
15% -20.4% 56% -20.1%
20% -28.2% 53% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses860 / 665
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1525 / 1634
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1525 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$20 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$23 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$34 +169%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$30 +167%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records