Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f60…cf68 other 33 markets active 5d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+58%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate100%30W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$108
politics 31% +$11
tech 7% $0
other 6% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 6% +1.2%
≤90d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 7% +1.1%
all 30 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 10% +44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 10% +44.3%
10% -14.0% 3% +30.5%
15% -22.3% 3% +17.9%
20% -29.9% 3% +6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses30 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage137d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $21 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Mar 02 $103 +$108 +104%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026? Feb 26 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 60d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 62d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 156 history records