Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f5f…d2c2
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage265d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 02 $23 +$1 +4%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -20%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 22 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 23% +$1
world 22% $0
politics 16% $0
economics 11% +$3
sports 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $31 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $34 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $34 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $31 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $9 250d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $23 250d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $32 250d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $32 250d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $32 251d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $31 251d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $31 251d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $1 251d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 251d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 252d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $32 252d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $32 252d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $32 252d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $32 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.5% -9.0% 27% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.80 · official $33.80 (match) · 114 history records