Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f59…6a33 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$105 (+11%) realized +$98 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$125
14 days+$179
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$68
other 34% +$165
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +93.8% +75.3% 60% 60% +102.0%
≤30d 12 +52.0% +37.5% 58% 58% +51.1%
≤90d 15 +42.4% +28.9% 53% 53% +40.8%
all 47 +4.2% -5.8% 51% 49% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 49% +1.0%
10% -14.8% 45% -8.7%
15% -23.0% 40% -17.5%
20% -30.6% 32% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage156d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $26 +$153 +596%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$31 +150%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 +$34 +165%
Will there be exactly 4 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 04 $20 −$2 -12%
Bruins vs. Devils Apr 26 $20 +$16 +82%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $20 −$12 -58%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Kings vs. Rangers Mar 17 $5 $0 +3%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Penguins vs. Utah Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Rangers vs. Wild Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Wild Mar 11 $20 +$13 +64%
Kings vs. Bruins Mar 11 $20 +$14 +68%
Flames vs. Rangers Mar 11 $5 −$4 -73%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Mar 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Mar 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Wild vs. Avalanche Mar 09 $10 +$10 +104%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 08 $20 +$12 +59%
Blackhawks vs. Stars Mar 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jan 31 $18 −$15 -83%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 31 $22 −$14 -61%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $9 −$5 -52%
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5 Jan 30 $10 +$9 +84%
Magic vs. Heat Jan 29 $40 −$20 -50%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jan 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Lakers vs. Bulls Jan 27 $5 −$2 -30%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $25 +$12 +47%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $11 +$9 +79%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $5 +$3 +61%
Golden Knights vs. Senators Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $14 +$5 +33%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $14 +$24 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 58¢ $30 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 35¢ $31 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 37¢ $51 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 22d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $20 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 69¢ $21 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $20 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 25d
Will there be exactly 4 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final BUY Yes 13¢ $21 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 27d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 27d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $18 56d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $8 64d
Utah vs. Stars BUY Stars 11¢ $5 104d
Kings vs. Rangers SELL Rangers $5 104d
Utah vs. Stars BUY Stars 59¢ $20 104d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Devils 55¢ $20 104d
Kings vs. Rangers BUY Rangers $5 104d
Penguins vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 66¢ $20 104d
Penguins vs. Utah BUY Utah 59¢ $20 106d
Rangers vs. Wild BUY Wild 31¢ $20 106d
Kings vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 10¢ $5 107d
Flames vs. Rangers SELL Flames 13¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.00 · official $47.00 (match) · 119 history records