Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f58…90b4 crypto 578 markets active 23h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%351W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -6.9% -15.7% 46% 46% -14.7%
≤30d 96 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 48% -11.7%
≤90d 578 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 41% -13.5%
all 578 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 41% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -13.5%
10% -20.9% 23% -21.8%
15% -28.5% 19% -29.3%
20% -35.5% 13% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses351 / 227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 1273 history records