Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8F 0x8f57…147b other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4 (-28%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-53.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-48.9%	-53.7%	25%	25%	-53.2%
≤30d	4	-48.9%	-53.7%	25%	25%	-53.2%
≤90d	4	-48.9%	-53.7%	25%	25%	-53.2%
all	4	-48.9%	-53.7%	25%	25%	-53.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-53.7%	25%	-53.2%
10%	-58.2%	25%	-57.7%
15%	-62.2%	25%	-61.8%
20%	-65.9%	25%	-65.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.35 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$2	+$2	+105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$6	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$2	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.84 · official $5.84 (match) · 6 history records