Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f55…4178 sports 36 markets active 9h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+7%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days+$37
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$23
other 32% +$84
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.1% -11.4% 35% 35% -6.4%
≤30d 23 +2.2% -7.6% 39% 39% -4.8%
≤90d 36 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 47% -4.6%
all 36 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 47% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 47% -4.6%
10% -11.7% 47% -13.7%
15% -20.3% 47% -22.1%
20% -28.1% 36% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage78d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 −$104 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $308 −$4 -1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $47 −$15 -31%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $214 +$86 +40%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $27 −$26 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$60 +279%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $12 −$11 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 +$20 +121%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 −$3 -11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 07 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$2 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 28h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $33 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $76 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $59 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $29 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $2 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $4 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $47 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $92 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $71 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $72 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $73 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $300 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records