Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8F 0x8f53…277e politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$2
politics 24% −$2
other 22% $0
culture 10% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.1%
all 50 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage301d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $137 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jan 31 $4 −$3 -67%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $41 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $18 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $36 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $18 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $22 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $5 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records