Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f53…b0b3 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,704 (+14%) realized +$6,326 · open −$1,622
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$2,524per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$13,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,943
7 days+$5,930
14 days+$5,930
30 days+$5,930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$4,321
politics 0% −$116
crypto 0% −$12
economics 0% −$20
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 25% +21.0%
≤30d 8 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 25% +21.0%
≤90d 8 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 25% +21.0%
all 12 -53.9% -58.3% 17% 17% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.3% 17% +20.0%
10% -62.3% 8% +8.5%
15% -65.9% 8% -2.0%
20% -69.3% 0% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,974 vs −$15 · ×192.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.41 per $1 lost it wins $38.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$13,378
Realized+$6,326
Unrealized−$1,622
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2,524
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $15,000 $13,378 −$1,622 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7,031 +$1,195 +17%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10,445 +$4,753 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -34%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 20 $60 −$56 -94%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 13 to Feb 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $8,038 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,227 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $7,036 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $7,031 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15,198 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $9,991 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $454 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to SELL Yes $4 123d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to BUY Yes 19¢ $60 123d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 13 to BUY Yes 12¢ $50 125d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $20 126d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to BUY Yes $10 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,378.37 · official $13,378.37 (match) · 28 history records