Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f52…7764 crypto 1192 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-0%) realized −$74 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%1138W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day103.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$429
14 days+$472
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +3.3% -6.6% 99% 7% -6.6%
≤30d 1190 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 1190 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 6% -9.0%
all 1190 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 6% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$55 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1138 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1190 / 1192
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day103.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $54 +$6 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $54 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$13 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $93 +$7 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $95 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $43 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $92 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $32 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.78 · official $100.00 · 3500 history records