Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f51…b3e6
other · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$85 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage535d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP all time high before 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Clavicular charged again by June 30? No 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 24 $1 −$1 -55%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 24 $1 $0 +35%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Clavicular charged again by June 30? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 23 $2 $0 +19%
OKX IPO in 2026? Feb 11 $2 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Jan 30 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 30 $2 +$3 +132%
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition Nov 01 $2 $0 -10%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 01 $3 $0 -8%
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? Oct 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15? Sep 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum above $3,600 on August 8? Sep 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +29%
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July? Aug 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? Aug 06 $2 $0 +12%
XRP all time high before 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Jun 24 $3 +$6 +186%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 +18%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Red Wings vs. Utah Mar 25 $5 +$7 +144%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday? Mar 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? Feb 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 06 $86 −$8 -9%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 06 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 23 $50 $0 +1%
Dolphins vs. Jets Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 05 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 05 $5 $0 +3%
Solana above $185 on January 3? Jan 03 $12 $0 -4%
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration? Jan 02 $8 $0 -3%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? Jan 02 $50 −$2 -4%
Ethena crash in 2024? Dec 30 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% −$11
politics 28% +$3
other 26% −$66
sports 8% −$12
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $1 1h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 1h
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 20d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum BUY Yes 70¢ $2 20d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 72d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? BUY No 74¢ $1 72d
Clavicular charged again by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 82d
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 82d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 82d
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 122d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 122d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 122d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 134d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 134d
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 165d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 224d
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition SELL Yes 77¢ $2 224d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 75¢ $3 224d
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition BUY Yes 85¢ $2 236d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 81¢ $3 236d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 59¢ $2 257d
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 257d
Ethereum above $3,600 on August 8? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 311d
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 311d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? SELL No 85¢ $2 311d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 84¢ $2 311d
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? SELL No 76¢ $2 311d
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 4 -30.7% -37.3% 25% 25% -43.5%
≤90d 7 -27.8% -34.7% 43% 29% -37.3%
all 47 -7.0% -15.9% 53% 30% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 30% -26.2%
10% -23.9% 19% -33.3%
15% -31.3% 13% -39.7%
20% -38.0% 11% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 113 history records