Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f4d…9f40 weather 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-18%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$87
14 days−$128
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$118
crypto 10% −$8
sports 1% −$4
other 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -36.9% -42.9% 14% 14% -26.3%
≤30d 160 -34.4% -40.6% 19% 17% -27.1%
≤90d 160 -34.4% -40.6% 19% 17% -27.1%
all 160 -34.4% -40.6% 19% 17% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 17% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 15% -34.1%
15% -51.5% 14% -40.4%
20% -56.3% 14% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions30
Markets (closed)160 / 190
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 47¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 63¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 55¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$5 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +193%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$3 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $30.84 (match) · 543 history records