trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 22 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 50% | 9% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.2% | 9% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -12.5% | 5% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -20.9% | 5% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -28.7% | 5% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 89¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 05 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $12 | −$3 | -26% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 27 | $39 | +$2 | +5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jun 23 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 16 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $2 | $0 | +15% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 15 | $12 | $0 | +0% |