Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f4c…a2c1 weather 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%304W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$47
14 days+$111
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$32
crypto 2% −$28
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.1% -6.7% 72% 20% -8.1%
≤30d 155 +0.4% -9.2% 87% 18% -10.0%
≤90d 356 +1.4% -8.3% 85% 10% -9.7%
all 356 +1.4% -8.3% 85% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 10% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses304 / 52
Open positions10
Markets (closed)356 / 366
History coverage62d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $124 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $52 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $26 −$12 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $121 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $321 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 20 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $51 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 36m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $75 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 57m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $87 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $73 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $79 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $41 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.53 · official $743.53 (match) · 1765 history records