Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f4b…a800 crypto 254 markets active 5h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%128W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$8
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +7.2% -3.0% 36% 36% -2.8%
≤30d 169 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 30% -19.4%
≤90d 254 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 21% -10.9%
all 254 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 21% -10.9%
10% -19.5% 20% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 19% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 19% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses128 / 126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 511 history records