Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f4a…2696 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$12
world 28% −$2
politics 13% +$2
culture 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 9 -12.0% -20.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -10.8% -19.3% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 42 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 5% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -8.1%
10% -18.7% 5% -16.9%
15% -26.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage303d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $42 +$11 +25%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $38 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 08 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 -13%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $51 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $19 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $25 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $44 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $42 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records