Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f43…53fa crypto 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-3%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%119W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day134.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 47% -14.6%
≤30d 213 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 213 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 47% -14.6%
all 213 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 47% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 25% -22.8%
15% -28.3% 10% -30.3%
20% -35.3% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses119 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day134.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$17 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$24 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $21 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $23 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records