Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f42…b88f world 166 markets active 6h ago coverage 97d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$538,219 (+53%) realized +$528,561 · open +$9,658
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%124W / 30L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$6,086per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$783est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$130,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$140,206
other 14% +$12,812
sports 2% +$9,011
politics 2% +$1,866
finance 0% +$634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% +28.2%
≤30d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 50% +16.5%
≤90d 146 +37.6% +24.5% 80% 42% +6.4%
all 154 +37.3% +24.2% 81% 43% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.2% 43% +6.1%
10% +12.4% 28% -4.0%
15% ← realistic here +1.5% 21% -13.3%
20% -8.4% 20% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$5,320) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,437 vs −$778 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.64 per $1 lost it wins $7.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$130,695
Realized+$528,561
Unrealized+$9,658
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses124 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$783
Open positions13
Markets (closed)154 / 166
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$6,086
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $70,022 $80,081 +$10,058 (+14%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $14,020 $14,333 +$313 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 93¢ $11,510 $12,459 +$949 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $5,727 $7,385 +$1,658 (+29%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $6,066 $6,494 +$428 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 66¢ 88¢ $2,837 $3,804 +$967 (+34%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 80¢ $2,095 $1,967 −$128 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 60¢ 31¢ $2,805 $1,449 −$1,356 (-48%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $1,055 $1,136 +$81 (+8%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 80¢ 90¢ $593 $664 +$70 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $2,286 $511 −$1,776 (-78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $778 $333 −$444 (-57%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 16¢ $1,244 $82 −$1,163 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6,853 +$3,540 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29,698 +$16,331 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $19,956 +$15,460 +78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $451 −$451 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $9,400 −$4,009 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $12,059 +$1,867 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 05 $4,111 −$3,874 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $21,954 +$268 +1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 30 $405 +$106 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$84 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4,891 +$3,852 +79%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $289 −$289 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4,824 −$601 -12%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $5,609 +$2,713 +48%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $103 −$100 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 02 $6,605 +$3,500 +53%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? May 01 $327 +$32 +10%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,553 +$698 +27%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $290 +$314 +108%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $11,078 +$33 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $55,333 +$1,333 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 25 $2,775 +$931 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $1,420 +$1,540 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $78 −$78 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $163 −$163 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $1,229 +$88 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $325 −$325 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $296 −$296 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,222 +$281 +7%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $1,262 +$224 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $2,034 +$1,144 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $19,853 +$2,903 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $444 −$444 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,636 +$184 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $325 +$21 +6%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $4,448 −$1,466 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $225 +$25 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $32,729 +$10,061 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $571 −$571 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $4,592 −$1,785 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $1,909 +$2,677 +140%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $629 +$148 +24%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $2,445 +$316 +13%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $3,650 +$471 +13%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $289 +$266 +92%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $1,516 +$365 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4,000 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $14,508 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,177 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $13,891 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,596 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,390 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $50 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,511 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,630 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $601 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,548 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5,135 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,869 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,175 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3,177 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,787 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5,975 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $91 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $7,264 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130,695.29 · official $130,695.29 (match) · 3500 history records