Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f42…cd3c weather 535 markets active 6h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,358 (-4%) realized −$1,312 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate79%411W / 108L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$446
14 days−$446
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$399
weather 39% −$731
other 1% −$240
sports 0% −$21
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -25.4% -32.5% 69% 18% -43.3%
≤30d 472 -7.4% -16.2% 82% 27% -13.6%
≤90d 519 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 26% -13.7%
all 519 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 26% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 26% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 11% -22.0%
15% -31.6% 5% -29.5%
20% -38.3% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$31 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$7,185
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses411 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)519 / 535
History coverage53d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $690 $705 +$15 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $697 $702 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 97¢ 91¢ $693 $653 −$40 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $554 $570 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $548 $563 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 96¢ 93¢ $545 $526 −$19 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $399 $427 +$29 (+7%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $420 $426 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $386 $423 +$37 (+10%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $394 $420 +$26 (+7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $416 $419 +$3 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 96¢ 86¢ $410 $365 −$44 (-11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 95¢ 85¢ $407 $364 −$43 (-11%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 97¢ 85¢ $416 $364 −$51 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $4 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $10 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,185.14 · official $7,185.14 (match) · 1851 history records