Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f41…260e
sports · 166 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$5,586 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,580 · open −$2,326
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$25,268
Realized+$6,580
Unrealized−$2,326
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses51 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions104
Markets (closed)80 / 166
Avg bet$273
Trades / day746.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 104 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,164
7 days+$6,580
14 days+$6,580
30 days+$6,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10,461 $10,863 +$402 (+4%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,112 $3,145 +$33 (+1%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,040 $845 −$195 (-19%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $764 $708 −$56 (-7%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 68¢ 62¢ $680 $620 −$60 (-9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $526 $577 +$51 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $611 $554 −$57 (-9%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $546 $543 −$3 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Sorana Cirstea 51¢ 50¢ $510 $495 −$15 (-3%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 80¢ 78¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $360 $380 +$20 (+6%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $350 $375 +$25 (+7%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 45¢ 44¢ $315 $311 −$3 (-1%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $270 $292 +$22 (+8%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $279 $282 +$3 (+1%)
ITF Casablanca: Maria Garcia Cid vs Aran Teixido Garcia Maria Garcia Cid 66¢ 66¢ $245 $247 +$2 (+1%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 47¢ 81¢ $141 $243 +$102 (+72%)
Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 42¢ $435 $233 −$202 (-46%)
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Andreea Prisacariu 54¢ 53¢ $230 $225 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $222 $225 +$3 (+2%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $180 $190 +$10 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $172 $166 −$6 (-3%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 22¢ $580 $157 −$423 (-73%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $130 +$10 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $288 +$112 +39%
Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
ITF Hurghada: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Sandra Samir Jun 12 $42 +$20 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,785 +$324 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,238 +$248 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,411 +$222 +9%
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 11 $188 +$50 +27%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $144 +$63 +44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $572 +$11 +2%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $240 +$10 +4%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Olivia Lincer Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Kulikova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Alena Kovackova Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $4 +$22 +605%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 10 $219 −$219 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Markus Molder vs Matthias Uwe Kask Jun 10 $41 +$14 +35%
ITF Casablanca: Anna Shkutova vs Martina Colmegna Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Marta Lombardini Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Messina: Leonardo Primucci vs Maxence Rivet Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Oskari Eerola vs Seydina Andre Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 10 $451 −$451 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Lina Gjorcheska vs Ekaterina Kazionova Jun 10 $805 −$805 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $184 +$216 +117%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $105 +$5 +5%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $167 +$167 +100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,447 +$85 +6%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $270 +$230 +85%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $175 +$127 +72%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $44 +$30 +70%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Mai Hontama Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Dalila Spiteri vs Laura Svatikova Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Lauryn John-Baptiste vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
ITF Monastir: Andrea Roots vs Isabella De Micco Padula Jun 10 $121 −$121 -100%
ITF Nice: Maria Sara Popa vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar Jun 10 $236 −$236 -100%
ITF Monastir: Maddalena Giordano vs Lourdes Ayala Jun 10 $235 −$235 -100%
ITF Monastir: Sofia Avataneo vs Soo Ha Jang Jun 10 $11 +$25 +233%
ITF Kayseri: Semra Aksu vs Alexandra Melnikova Jun 10 $329 +$371 +113%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $157 +$3,438 +2192%
ITF Madrid: Claudia Ferrer Perez vs Paula Cembranos Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 10 $28 +$10 +35%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $435 −$185 -42%
ITF Tokyo: Aishi Das vs Nana Kawagishi Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
ITF Maanshan: Xiaoyin Yang vs Evan Zhu Jun 10 $869 +$231 +27%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $249 −$247 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $682 +$118 +17%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Lyon: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Clement Tabur Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$1,422
sports 33% −$214
world 19% +$2,973
politics 8% +$71
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 84¢ $17 2m
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $21 2m
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 83¢ $17 5m
Will Matt Turner be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA W BUY No 91¢ $11 6m
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 8m
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 8m
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 8m
Will Diego Moreira be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $20 9m
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 10m
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $1 10m
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 12m
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $53 12m
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $23 15m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $17 16m
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 81¢ $16 16m
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $1 17m
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 81¢ $8 18m
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 18m
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 86¢ $17 20m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $17 21m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 24m
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 90¢ $19 24m
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 24m
Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 25m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $20 26m
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 84¢ $18 27m
Will Désiré Doué be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +42.8% +29.2% 64% 52% +8.5%
≤30d 80 +42.8% +29.2% 64% 52% +8.5%
≤90d 80 +42.8% +29.2% 64% 52% +8.5%
all 80 +42.8% +29.2% 64% 52% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover746.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.2% 52% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here +16.8% 49% -1.9%
15% +5.5% 36% -11.4%
20% -4.8% 28% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,267.92 · official $25,267.93 (match) · 3500 history records