Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f40…92fe other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 258L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 24% −$23
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$23
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 82 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage139d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $359 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $357 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $254 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $817 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $511 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $368 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $420 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $233 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $317 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $192 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 10h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 10h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 12h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 15h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 18h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 20h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 25h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 32h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 36h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 39h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 41h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1470 history records