Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f3a…8d3f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$297 (+3%) realized +$297 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,557per market
Trades / day114.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$288
sports 39% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 17% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 17% 17% -9.1%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 17% 17% -9.1%
all 6 +1.0% -8.6% 17% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 17% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$57 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,557
Trades / day114.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,617 −$248 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $565 −$17 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,059 −$5 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,800 +$326 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $800 −$15 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 81¢ $548 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 96¢ $2,029 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,785 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $121 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $40 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $362 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $435 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $437 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $282 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $733 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $385 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $166 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $542 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records