Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f3a…99b2 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$8 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$165
other 13% −$1
economics 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +79.8% +62.6% 35% 35% -37.6%
≤30d 17 +79.8% +62.6% 35% 35% -37.6%
≤90d 17 +79.8% +62.6% 35% 35% -37.6%
all 17 +79.8% +62.6% 35% 35% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.6% 35% -37.6%
10% ← realistic here +47.1% 35% -43.6%
15% +32.9% 24% -49.0%
20% +19.8% 24% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +215% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$36 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$167 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$40 -59%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$50 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $266 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $99 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $35 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $35 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $42 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 36m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $39 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $104.25 · 52 history records