Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f34…099d other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$9
politics 12% −$4
world 6% −$2
sports 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.9% -14.0% 6% 6% -13.1%
≤30d 55 -8.7% -17.4% 5% 5% -14.1%
≤90d 55 -8.7% -17.4% 5% 5% -14.1%
all 55 -8.7% -17.4% 5% 5% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 5% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 4% -22.3%
15% -32.5% 2% -29.8%
20% -39.1% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)55 / 73
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Beyoncé be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 74¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 11¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 11 $7 $0 -5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -57%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 07 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $8 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 06 $2 $0 -28%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 05 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $20 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6 $0 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $4 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $0 58m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $0 2h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $1 3h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 3h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $2 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $0 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $0 5h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $3 5h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $3 6h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $4 6h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $0 6h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $0 7h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $1 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.73 · official $25.64 · 410 history records