Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f30…ba89 crypto 1644 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$572 (+2%) realized +$468 · open +$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%748W / 895L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days+$35
14 days+$239
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$308
other 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 47% -8.6%
≤30d 940 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 43% -8.2%
≤90d 1643 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 45% -10.9%
all 1643 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 45% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 45% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 41% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 39% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$468
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses748 / 895
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1643 / 1644
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 49¢ 90¢ $124 $228 +$104 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 322 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$37 +371%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $65 +$55 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$55 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$20 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$131 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $110 +$88 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$22 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $129 −$122 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $143 +$141 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$24 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$21 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$29 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$18 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$18 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$24 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $55 +$57 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $129 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $55 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $129 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.66 · official $163.16 · 3500 history records