Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f28…760b
crypto · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$38 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage37d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 6 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Pistons 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? May 09 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 09 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? May 08 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +36%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 08 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 08 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 08 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 08 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 08 $26 +$9 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$34
sports 5% −$7
other 1% −$3
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 32¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 1h
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 33d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $1 34d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $1 34d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $1 34d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $1 34d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 19¢ $1 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $1 34d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $2 34d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Pistons 15¢ $1 35d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 10¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35d
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 69 -21.6% -29.1% 46% 41% -20.3%
all 69 -21.6% -29.1% 46% 41% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 41% -20.3%
10% -35.9% 30% -27.9%
15% -42.1% 23% -34.9%
20% -47.7% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $4.37 (match) · 186 history records