Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8f26…33d1 politics 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,371 (-0%) realized −$1,371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%28W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,952per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$30
14 days+$3
30 days+$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,560
politics 44% −$194
sports 5% +$336
economics 2% −$10
tech 1% −$5
world 1% −$3
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 52 +10.1% -0.4% 15% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 139 -3.7% -12.8% 9% 6% -10.3%
all 173 +3.6% -6.3% 16% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 12% -9.9%
10% -15.2% 11% -18.5%
15% -23.4% 9% -26.4%
20% -30.9% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,894) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$24 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$1,371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses28 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,952
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,308 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4,312 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $8,063 −$9 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,190 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8,344 −$9 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,630 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,062 −$5 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,148 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,844 −$5 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $77 +$78 +101%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $3,941 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,385 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $84 +$48 +57%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,213 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,801 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,237 −$6 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,901 −$4 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $56 +$59 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $53 +$69 +129%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,931 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $792 +$3 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,150 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,232 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $5,230 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,280 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $85 +$79 +93%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,537 −$4 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $81 +$62 +76%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,708 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $85 +$57 +67%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 20m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 4h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 29h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $275 31h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,648 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,541 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,542 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,644 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,647 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,687 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,690 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,648 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,628 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,535 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,645 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $903 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $905 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.21 · official $185.21 (match) · 658 history records