Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f23…c7d0 other 103 markets active 13d ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 404d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$194,748 (+27%) realized +$194,748 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%55W / 52L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$7,073per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,006
7 days−$1,006
14 days−$2,872
30 days−$6,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$138,939
other 24% +$2,207
economics 13% +$13,001
culture 10% +$1,868
sports 4% −$6,047
crypto 1% +$196
tech 0% +$530
world 0% −$1,228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -99.5% -99.6% 0% 0% -99.2%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 10% 10% -94.1%
≤90d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 36% 21% -75.6%
all 107 +50.4% +36.1% 51% 35% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.1% 35% +10.9%
10% ← realistic here +23.1% 30% +0.3%
15% +11.2% 23% -9.4%
20% +0.3% 22% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,554 vs −$904 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$854
Realized+$194,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses55 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 103
History coverage404d ⚠
Avg bet$7,073
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $565 −$556 -98%
Nara & Lucky divorce in 2025? Jun 29 $31 −$27 -86%
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2025? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 16 $2,589 −$1,866 -72%
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $1,198 −$1,180 -98%
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 12 $2,606 −$2,559 -98%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 09 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 08 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 02 $1,687 +$392 +23%
Will Carson Beck be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? May 29 $24 +$1 +5%
Will T.J. Parker be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? May 29 $126 +$7 +5%
Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? May 29 $364 +$84 +23%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February? May 29 $766 +$400 +52%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February? Mar 11 $323 −$323 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $64,972 +$564 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $30,593 +$14,631 +48%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Feb 03 $1,680 +$33 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 03 $14,775 −$15 -0%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jan 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Jan 02 $3,527 −$19 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Jan 02 $1,909 −$7 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Jan 02 $2,715 +$61 +2%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Jan 02 $14,825 +$175 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $44,719 +$1,268 +3%
Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2 Dec 29 $15 −$126 -828%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $22 +$8 +33%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 20 $111 +$39 +35%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Dec 13 $196 +$54 +27%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 08 $82,533 +$470 +1%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 08 $66,285 +$1,806 +3%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Nov 03 $40 +$84 +212%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2025 AL MVP? Oct 20 $460 +$40 +9%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 15 $98 +$212 +216%
Britney Spears tour in 2025? Oct 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+? Oct 15 $136 −$116 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 15 $78 −$43 -55%
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? Oct 15 $150 +$56 +37%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Oct 15 $127 +$68 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 15 $65 +$77 +119%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $22,394 +$3,033 +14%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 19 $29,771 −$24,301 -82%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? Aug 31 $61 +$139 +227%
Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in Aug 27 $13 +$26 +200%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? Aug 02 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 01 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? Jul 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 12d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 12d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $27 12d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 12d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 13d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 13d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 13d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 55¢ $146 13d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $9 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $4 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $12 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $3 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $7 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $6 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Caleb Wilson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $854.15 · official $854.15 (match) · 3500 history records