Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8F 0x8f22…1d6b crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,746 (-6%) realized −$3,726 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%155W / 17L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,521
other 1% −$220
sports 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 18% -11.3%
≤30d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 18% -11.3%
≤90d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 18% -11.3%
all 172 -3.4% -12.6% 90% 11% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 11% -14.9%
10% -20.9% 3% -23.0%
15% -28.6% 2% -30.4%
20% -35.6% 1% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$379 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$3,726
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses155 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage577d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $290 $270 −$20 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $502 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$19 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 17 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 15 $170 −$168 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 15 $165 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 15 $159 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 15 $1,214 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 15 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 15 $1,074 +$140 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 15 $948 +$72 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 15 $1,020 +$54 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 15 $839 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 15 $853 +$94 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 15 $772 +$67 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 15 $755 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 15 $739 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 15 $698 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 15 $716 +$23 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 15 $669 +$28 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 15 $651 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 15 $645 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9PM ET Mar 15 $627 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 15 $581 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 15 $572 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 15 $531 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 15 $479 +$52 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 15 $445 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 15 $1,723 −$1,699 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $292 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $250 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $257 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $130 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $131 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $90 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $91 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $91 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $90 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $91 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $84 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $74 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $70 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $62 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.31 · official $270.31 (match) · 365 history records