Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f1d…a802 crypto 1703 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$320 (+1%) realized +$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%1698W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day72.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$198
other 37% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 -34.6% -40.9% 55% 1% -40.3%
≤30d 1945 -8.9% -17.6% 87% 1% -16.7%
≤90d 1945 -8.9% -17.6% 87% 1% -16.7%
all 1945 -8.9% -17.6% 87% 1% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 1% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 0% -24.7%
15% -32.7% 0% -32.0%
20% -39.3% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1698 / 247
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1945 / 1703
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1945 Trades
no open positions (262 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.37 · official $30.37 (match) · 3500 history records