Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f1b…2c81 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 21% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 8% $0
economics 5% −$1
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 0% -8.6%
all 40 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage266d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $6 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $71 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Sep 30 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $26 −$1 -2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 88¢ $44 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $44 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $44 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $44 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $33 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $38 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $37 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $37 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.93 · official $43.91 (match) · 127 history records