Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f1b…dec3
crypto · 954 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$550 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$550 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202
Realized+$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses895 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)954 / 954
History coverage95d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 954 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$245
14 days+$164
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $198 $201 +$3 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $198 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $143 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $198 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $181 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $143 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 345 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 936 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 954 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.47 · official $201.22 (match) · 2718 history records