Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f15…a670 sports 908 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+2%) realized +$177 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%532W / 352L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$97
14 days−$0
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$303
other 40% +$485
world 1% −$51
crypto 1% +$17
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 63% -11.4%
≤30d 883 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -7.9%
≤90d 884 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -7.9%
all 884 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 50% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 36% -16.7%
15% -30.2% 24% -24.7%
20% -37.1% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses532 / 352
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions24
Markets (closed)884 / 908
History coverage31d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 100¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+13%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 63¢ 94¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 96¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? No 63¢ 76¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? No 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 50¢ $37 $23 −$15 (-40%)
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CD Real Tomayapo: Both Teams to Score Yes 91¢ 51¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 78¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 59¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Samsung Lions 59¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 55¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$9 +30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 +$6 +17%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $38 +$5 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 +$12 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 +$5 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $38 +$15 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 +$11 +30%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $19 +$4 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 +$15 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$8 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $38 +$6 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 +$6 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 +$9 +25%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 +$5 +14%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$8 +61%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -99%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$6 +16%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 +$10 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 +$13 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 +$3 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $38 +$10 +26%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 +$9 +25%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $26 −$23 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 +$11 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $13 −$12 -100%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$10 +27%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $19 +$12 +64%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 +$3 +25%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $6 26m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $6 26m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $6 31m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $6 31m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $6 36m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $6 36m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $6 41m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $6 41m
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $6 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $6 2h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $6 2h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 62¢ $6 2h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.17 · official $342.99 (match) · 2896 history records