Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f15…0d75
crypto · 178 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$329 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$119 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses86 / 90
Open positions3
Markets (closed)176 / 178
History coverage2d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2012.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 55¢ 46¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 45¢ 55¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Down 98¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 22¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $67 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $235 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $153 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $73 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $161 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $64 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $141 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $196 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $97 −$17 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $94 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $121 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$124
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +14.1% +3.3% 49% 24% -8.9%
≤30d 176 +14.1% +3.3% 49% 24% -8.9%
≤90d 176 +14.1% +3.3% 49% 24% -8.9%
all 176 +14.1% +3.3% 49% 24% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2012.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 24% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 10% -17.6%
15% -15.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -23.9% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.27 · official $69.23 · 3500 history records