Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f15…f295 crypto 1382 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$990 (+3%) realized +$990 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%434W / 948L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,862
7 days−$1,684
14 days−$1,555
30 days−$1,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1,232
crypto 26% +$209
other 6% −$1,238
sports 2% −$5
politics 0% −$19
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.1% +4.1% 50% 50% -48.7%
≤30d 19 +25.8% +13.8% 53% 42% -30.8%
≤90d 1348 -6.4% -15.3% 32% 30% -11.1%
all 1382 -7.6% -16.4% 31% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 29% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 25% -19.7%
15% -31.7% 20% -27.5%
20% -38.4% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses434 / 948
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1382 / 1382
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1382 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 22 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $2,073 −$262 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$158 +155%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $112 +$20 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $224 −$111 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $519 +$121 +23%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $35 +$168 +479%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$44 -82%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $445 +$13 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 04 $128 +$2 +1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $31 +$58 +186%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $339 +$159 +47%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $102 −$4 -4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $200 +$44 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $110 −$37 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $507 −$353 -70%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $953 −$100 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $7,443 +$396 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $899 −$126 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $563 +$120 +21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $150 −$30 -20%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $2,157 +$307 +14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $2,989 +$763 +26%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 12 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 12 $41 −$22 -53%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $101 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 26 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 26 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $96 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $64 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $177 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $159 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $55 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $102 5d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $133 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $132 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $71 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $113 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $200 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes $86 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes $137 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes $110 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes $1 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes $1 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records