Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f14…ca5a
sports · 346 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$129 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$722 · open −$833
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,207
Realized+$722
Unrealized−$833
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses130 / 132
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions187
Markets (closed)262 / 346
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2736.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 187 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$722
7 days+$722
14 days+$722
30 days+$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 50¢ 100¢ $104 $209 +$104 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 62¢ 57¢ $197 $182 −$15 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 29¢ 100¢ $48 $168 +$120 (+249%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $126 $117 −$8 (-7%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Misa Esports 69¢ 100¢ $76 $110 +$34 (+44%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 42¢ $24 $74 +$50 (+204%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 54¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 75¢ 69¢ $59 $54 −$4 (-7%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 40¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 48¢ 100¢ $20 $41 +$22 (+109%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $195 −$21 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$7 +8%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$23 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $173 −$58 -33%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 +$12 +16%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $50 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $303 −$30 -10%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $12 +$10 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $249 −$230 -92%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$13 -65%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $28 +$57 +198%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $45 +$11 +24%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $17 −$16 -91%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $117 −$23 -20%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $48 −$43 -90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $198 −$43 -22%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $7 +$41 +608%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $8 −$3 -35%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $181 +$29 +16%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $6 +$11 +175%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $4 +$33 +905%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $14 +$4 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$162 -62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $234 +$106 +45%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $14 +$6 +41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $159 −$83 -52%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $251 +$20 +8%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $8 −$3 -38%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $25 −$20 -80%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $309 −$74 -24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% −$286
other 18% +$176
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3 0m
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) BUY OLDBOYS PL 50¢ $2 1m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $21 4m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 54¢ $11 6m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 54¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $25 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $18 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $4 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $6 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 58¢ $50 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 58¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 59¢ $25 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $25 18m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 19m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 19m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 20m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 72¢ $7 21m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 54¢ $11 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 54¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 54¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $2 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $3 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $3 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $1 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 40% -3.8%
≤30d 262 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 262 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 40% -3.8%
all 262 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 40% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2736.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 40% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 33% -13.0%
15% -16.2% 27% -21.5%
20% -24.4% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,207.07 · official $4,206.42 (match) · 3500 history records