Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f13…203a
other · 559 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$94 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$338
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses437 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions13
Markets (closed)546 / 559
History coverage181d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 13 History 546 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$464
14 days+$20
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 31¢ 30¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No 4¢ 78¢ $3 $46 +$43 (+1710%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 30¢ 45¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+49%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 55¢ 29¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-47%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 95¢ 89¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 99¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 +$30 +60%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $50 −$9 -19%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $14 +$51 +375%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$31 +650%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 −$42 -84%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $34 −$14 -43%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $149 +$68 +45%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $149 −$149 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $149 +$57 +38%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $97 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $150 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $101 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$110 +216%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 07 $106 +$95 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $61 +$19 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $61 +$63 +103%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $60 +$20 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $60 +$47 +78%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $63 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $599 −$151 -25%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $456 −$125 -28%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$10 -73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $110 −$35 -32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $334 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $134 −$13 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $62 +$38 +62%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $478 −$8 -2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $72 +$37 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% −$13
tech 8% +$12
sports 6% +$127
crypto 5% +$4
weather 3% −$5
culture 3% −$6
world 0% −$32
politics 0% +$11
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 4¢ $2 4m
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 5¢ $1 5m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $13 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $13 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $13 2h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $12 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $37 4h
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $8 5h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 95¢ $22 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 1¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 1¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 1¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 1¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 3¢ $1 5h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 6¢ $15 6h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 7¢ $10 6h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 11¢ $10 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 31¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 2¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $44 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.3% -12.5% 42% 34% -18.7%
≤30d 128 -3.9% -13.0% 54% 26% -9.4%
≤90d 251 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 16% -9.4%
all 546 +0.1% -9.5% 80% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.07 · official $342.18 · 1691 history records