Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f11…749d other 125 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$79 (+9%) realized +$84 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%33W / 15L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day80.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$74
sports 35% −$13
world 1% +$14
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +22.4% +10.8% 69% 56% +4.6%
≤30d 48 +22.4% +10.8% 69% 56% +4.6%
≤90d 48 +22.4% +10.8% 69% 56% +4.6%
all 48 +22.4% +10.8% 69% 56% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 56% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 42% -5.4%
15% -9.5% 27% -14.5%
20% -18.4% 23% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions77
Markets (closed)48 / 125
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day80.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 81¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 38¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 49¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 42¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 85¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$38 +307%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$4 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 +$14 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$43 +141%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$9 -36%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$18 +874%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$7 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$8 +24%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $33 +$12 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $2 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $1 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $1 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $1 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $1 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $2 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $7 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $8 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $18 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.43 · official $369.24 (match) · 494 history records