Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f11…558f politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
politics 27% $0
other 22% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage275d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $1 $0 +5%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $22 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $11 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $1 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $33 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $24 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $10 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $12 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records