Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f0b…ef1d sports 724 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,147 (-6%) realized −$2,147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%337W / 387L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$491est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$567
7 days−$317
14 days−$4,737
30 days−$3,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,582
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -24.1% -31.3% 63% 15% -11.8%
≤30d 175 -63.6% -67.1% 23% 12% -21.9%
≤90d 724 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 42% -16.4%
all 724 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 42% -16.4%
10% -20.6% 38% -24.4%
15% -28.2% 35% -31.7%
20% -35.3% 29% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses337 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$491
Open positions0
Markets (closed)724 / 724
History coverage72d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 724 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $280 −$215 -77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $470 +$30 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $465 +$35 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $470 +$30 +6%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $470 +$30 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $325 +$508 +156%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $282 −$282 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $453 −$453 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $475 +$25 +5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $485 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,248 +$373 +30%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $477 +$23 +5%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $340 −$340 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,538 +$512 +33%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $291 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $495 +$5 +1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $465 +$35 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,112 +$523 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $490 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $480 +$20 +4%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $245 +$5 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $379 +$13 +3%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $470 +$30 +6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $495 +$5 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $203 +$214 +105%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $495 +$5 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $97 +$152 +156%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $82 +$18 +23%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $470 +$30 +6%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $479 +$21 +4%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $167 +$82 +49%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $1,507 +$293 +19%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $76 +$41 +54%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $305 +$347 +114%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers S Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ $65 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $280 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $101 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $7 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $3 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $2 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $49 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $3 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $155 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $137 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $7 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $128 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $56 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $1 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $4 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $16 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $76 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $183 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $149 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $4 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $17 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $300 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $251 16h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 40¢ $200 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1756 history records