Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f0b…8be2 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,486 (-3%) realized −$2,191 · open +$705
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2,737
other 35% +$1,090
politics 3% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 3 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 19 -27.5% -34.4% 63% 16% -23.8%
all 33 -14.0% -22.2% 73% 18% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 18% -18.3%
10% -29.7% 9% -26.1%
15% -36.5% 3% -33.2%
20% -42.7% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$400 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$20,320
Realized−$2,191
Unrealized+$705
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions41
Markets (closed)33 / 74
History coverage160d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,355 $1,412 +$57 (+4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,200 $1,220 +$20 (+2%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,201 $1,207 +$6 (+1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 81¢ $1,085 $1,113 +$28 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,011 $1,058 +$47 (+5%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $900 $934 +$34 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $848 $905 +$58 (+7%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $832 $853 +$21 (+2%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 75¢ 86¢ $700 $810 +$110 (+16%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $694 $774 +$81 (+12%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $728 $757 +$29 (+4%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $715 $738 +$22 (+3%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $700 $703 +$4 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $607 $651 +$44 (+7%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $620 $637 +$17 (+3%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $607 $610 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $588 $602 +$14 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $516 $513 −$3 (-1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $465 $486 +$21 (+4%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $454 $450 −$5 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $450 $440 −$10 (-2%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $421 $425 +$3 (+1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $360 $376 +$17 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $354 $366 +$12 (+4%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $348 $359 +$11 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Jun 16 $751 +$83 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? May 07 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? May 07 $1,828 −$1,828 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 07 $1,680 −$684 -41%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31? May 07 $245 +$7 +3%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? May 07 $1,035 +$50 +5%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? May 07 $462 +$87 +19%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? May 07 $900 +$70 +8%
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? May 07 $603 +$231 +38%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? May 07 $1,313 +$89 +7%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? May 07 $1,146 +$76 +7%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? May 07 $2,323 +$187 +8%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? May 07 $2,664 +$110 +4%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $1,615 +$15 +1%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Feb 20 $200 −$9 -5%
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? Feb 18 $460 +$115 +25%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Feb 17 $75 −$23 -30%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $800 +$16 +2%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Feb 01 $900 +$3 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition Feb 01 $600 +$23 +4%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $606 +$78 +13%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $140 +$12 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $100 +$23 +24%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $566 +$26 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 4h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 4h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $68 5h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 5h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $142 6h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 6h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 6h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 6h
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $489 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $23 22h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 22h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 22h
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 30h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $350 30h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $400 30h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $540 32h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $398 32h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $14 47h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $7 47h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $89 47h
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $111 47h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $32 4d
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 4d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 5d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,320.37 · official $20,320.55 (match) · 424 history records