Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8F 0x8f09…9d7f sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$63 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$202
14 days+$202
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$333
other 45% −$165
world 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +181.3% +154.5% 100% 100% +113.5%
≤30d 5 +181.3% +154.5% 100% 100% +113.5%
≤90d 36 +21.2% +9.7% 58% 56% -3.5%
all 36 +21.2% +9.7% 58% 56% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 56% -3.5%
10% -0.8% 50% -12.8%
15% -10.4% 50% -21.2%
20% -19.2% 47% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$65 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage71d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $41 +$41 +100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $41 +$33 +82%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$26 +155%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 17 $45 +$81 +181%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$31 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $33 +$26 +79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $83 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $114 +$20 +17%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $150 +$68 +46%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $50 +$38 +76%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $214 +$18 +8%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $60 +$71 +118%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $210 +$214 +102%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $190 +$112 +59%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $60 +$36 +60%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $120 +$14 +12%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$23 -78%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $100 −$11 -11%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $20 +$45 +226%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $105 +$65 +62%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 −$196 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $50 +$41 +82%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $100 +$114 +114%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 09 $67 +$51 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $74 21m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $41 39m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 47m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 71¢ $43 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 27¢ $17 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 35¢ $45 2d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 30d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 33d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 44d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $31 49d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $51 49d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $1 49d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $51 49d
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $114 53d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 55d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 55d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $59 56d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $150 57d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 57d
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $88 58d
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $232 58d
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $214 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $7.69 · 75 history records