Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8F 0x8f08…f01d other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$318 (-6%) realized −$302 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$105
14 days+$114
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$525
world 11% +$114
sports 4% +$67
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +27.3% +15.1% 70% 70% +22.9%
≤30d 22 +28.7% +16.4% 73% 73% +23.1%
≤90d 22 +28.7% +16.4% 73% 73% +23.1%
all 63 +13.0% +2.2% 63% 63% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 63% -15.6%
10% -7.6% 59% -23.7%
15% -16.5% 52% -31.0%
20% -24.7% 40% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$93 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage138d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-26%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 22¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$16 +153%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$32 +125%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$10 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $190 −$182 -96%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Feb 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Feb 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $500 −$433 -87%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $150 +$195 +130%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $200 +$206 +103%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $200 +$149 +74%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $250 +$122 +49%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $200 +$162 +81%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $37 +$9 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $150 +$60 +40%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $250 +$87 +35%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $150 +$91 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $250 −$212 -85%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $100 +$37 +38%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $50 +$76 +152%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $150 +$43 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $15 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 29h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 35h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $58 47h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $26 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $25 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $14 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $18 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.25 · official $24.25 (match) · 136 history records