Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8F 0x8f06…c143 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$123 (+33%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$49
other 15% +$39
crypto 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +36.0% +23.1% 56% 56% +11.1%
≤30d 9 +36.0% +23.1% 56% 56% +11.1%
≤90d 9 +36.0% +23.1% 56% 56% +11.1%
all 9 +36.0% +23.1% 56% 56% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 56% +11.1%
10% +11.3% 56% +0.5%
15% +0.5% 44% -9.2%
20% -9.3% 44% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$58 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$28 -95%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $123 +$32 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $45 +$78 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$26 +144%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $43 −$42 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $14 +$29 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $156 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 77¢ $123 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $123 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $45 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $43 5d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 31¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records