Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f06…a799 sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$296 (-6%) realized −$270 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$460
14 days−$460
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$251
tech 5% −$34
other 4% −$51
crypto 3% +$15
finance 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 42% -24.3%
≤30d 90 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 43% -23.7%
≤90d 117 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 47% -15.8%
all 117 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 47% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% -15.8%
10% -20.1% 41% -23.9%
15% -27.8% 34% -31.2%
20% -34.9% 31% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$270
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 51
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 125
History coverage73d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 72¢ 62¢ $259 $224 −$34 (-13%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 62¢ $90 $74 −$16 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+14%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 100¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+75%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Yawara Esports 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Jun 30 $70 +$48 +68%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$18 +181%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$15 -76%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 29 $20 −$19 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 29 $56 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $50 +$11 +22%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Blitzkrieg (+1.5) Jun 29 $20 +$2 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 +$6 +56%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am Jun 29 $40 +$27 +68%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Jun 28 $40 +$20 +49%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$36 +89%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$24 +60%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 28 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $40 −$19 -46%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $80 +$42 +52%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Jun 28 $90 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$47 +116%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $20 +$43 +217%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$15 +48%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $50 −$29 -58%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $10 +$9 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $40 −$29 -73%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $10 +$7 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Yawara Esports 66¢ $10 29m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $118 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 60¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 59¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 59¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 59¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 57¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 56¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 56¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 44¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 50¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 48¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Procyon Gaming 22¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 12¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $10 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $10 8h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $10 10h
Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Blitzkrieg (+1.5) SELL paiN Academy 100¢ $22 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.71 · official $529.71 (match) · 731 history records