Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f02…baad weather 843 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,341 (+80%) realized +$3,243 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%145W / 641L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day136.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$394
crypto 44% +$185
sports 2% +$14
world 1% −$1
other 1% +$86
politics 0% −$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 37% -7.1%
≤30d 786 -25.9% -33.0% 18% 16% -33.7%
≤90d 786 -25.9% -33.0% 18% 16% -33.7%
all 786 -25.9% -33.0% 18% 16% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 16% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 9% -40.1%
15% -45.3% 7% -45.9%
20% -50.6% 6% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$3,243
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses145 / 641
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)786 / 843
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day136.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 786 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lola "Lolo" Poggio win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4400%)
Will Cinzia Francischiello win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+4100%)
Will Brian Sarmiento win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $10 +$9 (+4650%)
Will Yanina Zilli win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4550%)
Will Lola Tomaszewski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4400%)
Will Emanuel Di Gioia win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4400%)
Will Nazareno Pompei win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 5¢ 45¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+800%)
Will Franco Zunino win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 5¢ 44¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+790%)
Will Juan "Juanicar" Caruso win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4350%)
Will Luana Fernández win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4500%)
Will Jennifer "Pincoya" Galvarini win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4450%)
Will Eduardo Carrera win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4400%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Pittsburgh Steelers next? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karim Adeyemi be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup sq Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade Français win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SoCal Hard Eights finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Innio's market cap be less than $17B at market close on IPO day? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Niclas Füllkrug be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tomás Palacios be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Máximo Perrone be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in May? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.75B and $5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing 92 win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Andrich be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup s Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gabriel Rojas be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kevin Schade be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tanner Tessmann be included in the USA's official 2026 World Cup Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.25B and $4 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in May? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finn Dahmen be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$11 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$3 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $45 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.24 · official $102.17 (match) · 3500 history records