Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f00…2f63 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,207 (-20%) realized −$4,299 · open +$92
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,241
7 days−$3,724
14 days−$3,700
30 days−$3,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$834
other 22% −$247
world 11% −$2,400
crypto 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -16.7% -24.7% 43% 40% -34.0%
≤30d 92 +13.1% +2.3% 51% 48% -27.0%
≤90d 92 +13.1% +2.3% 51% 48% -27.0%
all 92 +13.1% +2.3% 51% 48% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 48% -27.0%
10% -7.5% 43% -34.0%
15% -16.4% 35% -40.4%
20% -24.6% 22% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$218 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,082
Realized−$4,299
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage18d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $988 $1,081 +$93 (+9%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 +$210 +83%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $254 +$370 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $336 +$120 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $337 +$268 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,433 −$2,400 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,206 −$1,193 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$146 +723%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $165 +$160 +97%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $373 +$155 +42%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $309 +$256 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,509 −$1,500 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $504 +$173 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $508 +$556 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $302 +$85 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $113 −$111 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $232 +$75 +32%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $142 +$88 +62%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $135 −$134 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 10 $101 −$23 -23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $102 +$3 +3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $252 +$68 +27%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $296 +$35 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.78 · official $1,081.58 (match) · 332 history records