Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8efe…6704
crypto · 878 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$471 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,125 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses483 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,358
Open positions0
Markets (closed)910 / 878
History coverage120d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 910 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$445
7 days−$3,652
14 days−$4,117
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION Challengers 27¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 5star vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group A FlyQuest 66¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner CCG Esports 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$234 +546079%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$37 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 5PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$41 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$169 +2996%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $260 +$236 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $494 +$496 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,158 −$141 -12%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $990 −$173 -18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $826 −$468 -57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $353 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $300 +$42 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $648 +$342 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $546 +$222 +41%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $300 −$41 -14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $451 −$150 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $300 +$195 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $439 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $669 +$321 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $898 +$243 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $653 −$521 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$1,463
crypto 13% +$212
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $396 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 10¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $138 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $990 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $891 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $392 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $65 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $80 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $41 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 13¢ $127 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $219 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $188 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL Leo Team 99¢ $492 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 70¢ $351 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL SPARTA 30¢ $147 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 60¢ $84 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 60¢ $99 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 60¢ $99 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 60¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL Leo Team 32¢ $178 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $18 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +44.8% +31.0% 38% 37% -22.0%
≤30d 172 +58.5% +43.4% 58% 51% -11.1%
≤90d 801 +12.3% +1.6% 53% 41% -10.3%
all 910 +19.8% +8.4% 53% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 42% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 27% -18.5%
15% -11.4% 19% -26.4%
20% -20.1% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records