Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8efc…5477
crypto · 159 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$62 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$62 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses136 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage599d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 2 History 157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? No 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 06 $65 +$25 +39%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Apr 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 13 $52 +$13 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Feb 24 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.50 December 29-January 4? Jan 12 $54 $0 +0%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 02 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Meta announce Instagram sale in 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +6%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Jan 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Jan 02 $17 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? Dec 09 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Dec 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16? Dec 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 18 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 14 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 3? Nov 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 03 $16 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? Oct 10 $16 +$1 +9%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market ca Oct 01 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Opensea launch a token by September 30? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 01 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times August 29–September 5? Sep 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $175 in August? Sep 01 $8 +$3 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in August? Sep 01 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28? Jul 27 $32 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$16
other 20% −$5
politics 7% +$49
tech 6% +$15
economics 2% +$2
sports 1% +$17
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $93 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $94 11d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $72 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $20 38d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 82d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $65 92d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 92d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 106d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $85 125d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 151d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 151d
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 161d
Will XRP reach $2.50 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $54 161d
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 161d
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 186d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $23 186d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $21 192d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 192d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 192d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $20 192d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? SELL No 50¢ $10 206d
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16? BUY No 100¢ $18 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 -17.2% -25.1% 78% 11% -9.5%
all 157 -2.8% -12.1% 87% 13% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 13% -6.6%
10% -20.5% 8% -15.5%
15% -28.2% 6% -23.7%
20% -35.2% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.63 · official $94.63 (match) · 334 history records